Master's Thesis Fabian Kober
Simulation-based uncertainty analysis of the energy supply of a city district
Planning for the energy supply of individual houses in the city district level can only be achieved
with great effort and certain assumptions. Most designs are created using static methods, which
does lead to fast, but not necessarily accurate results. A corresponding simulation model allows
dynamic examination which is more realistically.However, this approach ismuchmore complicated
and needs a careful selection of input variables and variable parameters.
Using the simulations , it is possible to plan future energy supply for houses based on different
scenarios. With clock speeds and operating hours of heat pumps and combinded heat and power
(CHP) plants, it is feasible to adjust the thermal design, so that the plants, also in view of future heat
requirements, are properly sized and the service life can be increased .
In this present thesis, the model produced by the Institute, is adopted and modified for the subject.
Itmodeled a reference state and two future scenarios. The consideration of different times is therefore
important because the plants have a life exhibit of several decades. Therefore, also in the light
of future working environment, the plants should be designed for efficient functioning.
The input data for the weather and the renovation rate are assumed to be afflicted with uncertainty
data. These are examined by means of Quasi-Monte Carlo analysis. Both the weather and the
restoration rate have an impact on the way in which the power generation plants are driven. These
differences are identified using the simulated results. The choice of the individual power supply
is picked by an Optimizer and the given forecast energy requirements. The tool minimizes CO2-
emissions and has a further limitation at the costs in order to avoid nonsensical constellations.